Syria says ready to talk with armed opposition

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Syria is ready for talks with its armed opponents, Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said on Monday, in the clearest offer yet of negotiations with rebels fighting to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.

But Moualem said at the same time Syria would pursue its fight "against terrorism", alluding to the conflict with rebels in which the United Nations says 70,000 people have been killed.

Assad and his foes are locked in a bloody stalemate after nearly two years of combat, destruction and civilian suffering.

"We are ready for dialogue with everyone who wants it...Even with those who have weapons in their hands. Because we believe that reforms will not come through bloodshed but only through dialogue," Russia's Itar-Tass news agency quoted Moualem as saying.

He was speaking in Moscow at a meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Russia is a staunch ally of Assad.

Moaz Alkhatib, head of the opposition Syrian National Coalition, said in Cairo he had not had held any contacts about talks with Damascus, but had postponed trips to Russia and the United States "until we see how things develop".

Syria's government and the political opposition have both suggested in recent weeks they are prepared for some contacts - softening their previous outright rejection of talks to resolve a conflict which has driven nearly a million Syrians out of the country and left millions more homeless and hungry.

But the opposition has said any political solution must be based on the removal of Assad, whose family has ruled Syria since 1970. Rebel fighters, who do not answer to Alkhatib, are even more insistent that Assad must go before any talks start.

Brigadier Selim Idris, head of a rebel military command, demanded a complete ceasefire, the president's departure and the trial of his security and military chiefs as preconditions for negotiations. "We will not go (into talks) unless these demands are realized," he told Al Arabiya Television.

Damascus has rejected any preconditions for talks aimed at ending the violence, which started as a peaceful pro-democracy uprising in March 2011 inspired by Arab revolts elsewhere.

"SYRIAN COLLAPSE"

The two sides also differ on the location for any talks, with the opposition saying they should be abroad or in rebel-held parts of Syria. Assad's government says any serious dialogue must be held on Syrian territory under its control.

Adding to the difficulty of any negotiated settlement is the lack of influence that Syria's political opposition - mostly operating outside the country - has over rebels inside.

"We are following the development of events ... with alarm," Lavrov said. "In our evaluation the situation is at a kind of crossroads. There are those who have set a course for further bloodshed and an escalation of conflict. This is fraught with the risk of the collapse of the Syrian state and society.

"But there are also reasonable forces that increasingly acutely understand the need for the swiftest possible start of talks ... In these conditions the need for the Syrian leadership to continue to consistently advocate the start of dialogue, and not allow provocations to prevail, is strongly increasing."

Lavrov's warning that the Syrian state could founder appeared aimed to show that Russia is pressing Assad's government to seek a negotiated solution while continuing to lay much of the blame for the persistent violence on his opponents.

Russia has distanced itself from Assad and has stepped up its calls for dialogue as his prospects of retaining power have decreased, but insists that his exit must not be a precondition.

Itar-Tass did not report any other comments by Syria's Moualem on the chances for talks or on any conditions attached.

"What's happening in Syria is a war against terrorism," the agency quoted him as saying. "We will strongly adhere to a peaceful course and continue to fight against terrorism."

The Syrian National Coalition said on Friday it was willing to negotiate a peace deal, but insisted Assad could not be party to it - a demand that the president looks sure to reject.

U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said Assad had told him he intended to remain president until his term ends in 2014 and would then run for re-election.

The political chasm between the government and rebels and a lack of opposition influence over rebel fighters has allowed fighting to rage on for 23 months in Syria, while international diplomatic deadlock has prevented effective intervention.

Moualem's comments echoed remarks last week by Minister for National Reconciliation Ali Haidar, who said he was ready to meet the armed opposition. But Haidar drew a distinction between what said might be "preparatory talks" and formal negotiations.

Assad, announcing plans last month for a national dialogue to address the crisis, said that there would be no dialogue with people he called traitors or "puppets made by the West".

Moualem made his remarks a day after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry began a nine-nation tour of European and Arab nations in which the Syria conflict will be a main focus.

Kerry plans to meet Lavrov in Berlin on Tuesday and Syrian opposition leaders at a conference in Rome on Thursday, although it is unclear whether all will attend amid internal rows over the value of such international meetings while violence goes on.

(Additional reporting by Yasmine Saleh in Cairo; Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Alistair Lyon)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Britain's top Catholic cleric resigns, won't elect new pope

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's most senior Roman Catholic cleric resigned on Monday following allegations he behaved in an inappropriate way with priests, and said he would not take part in the election of Pope Benedict's replacement.

Cardinal Keith O'Brien said he had tendered his resignation some months ago, ahead of his 75th birthday in March and because he was suffering from "indifferent health".

The Vatican said the pope, who steps down on Thursday, had accepted O'Brien's resignation as archbishop of St. Andrews and Edinburgh.

O'Brien, an outspoken opponent of gay marriage, has been reported to the Vatican over allegations of inappropriate behavior stretching back 30 years, according to Britain's Observer newspaper.

The cardinal, who last week advocated allowing Catholic priests to marry as many found it difficult to cope with celibacy, rejected the allegations and was seeking legal advice, his spokesman said.1

"Looking back over my years of ministry: For any good I have been able to do, I thank God. For any failures, I apologize to all whom I have offended," O'Brien said in a statement, which made no reference to the recent allegations.

He said he would not attend the election next month of a new pope, saying: "I do not wish media attention in Rome to be focused on me - but rather on Pope Benedict XVI and on his successor."

The Observer, which gave little detail on the claims, said three priests and a former priest, from a Scottish diocese, had complained over incidents dating back to 1980.

One said the cardinal formed an "inappropriate relationship" with him while another complained of unwanted behavior by O'Brien after a late-night drinking session.

Last year, O'Brien's comments labeling gay marriage a "grotesque subversion" landed him with a "Bigot of the Year" award from British gay rights group Stonewall.

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge and Michael Holden; editing by Maria Golovnina and Jon Boyle)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Powers to offer Iran sanctions relief at nuclear talks: U.S. official

ALMATY (Reuters) - Major powers will offer Iran some sanctions relief during talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan, this week if Tehran agrees to curb its nuclear program, a U.S. official said on Monday.

However, the Islamic Republic could face more economic pain if the standoff remains unresolved, the official said ahead of the February 26-27 meeting, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"We think ... there will be some additional sanctions relief (in the powers' updated proposal to Iran)," the official said, without giving details.

Western diplomats have told Reuters that the United States, Russia, China, Britain, Germany and France will offer to ease sanctions on trade in gold and precious metals if Iran closes its Fordow underground uranium enrichment plant.

Iranian officials have indicated, however, that this will not be enough. Iran denies Western it is seeking to develop the capability to make nuclear bombs, saying its program is entirely peaceful.

The U.S. official said the powers hoped that the Almaty meeting would lead to follow-up talks soon. "We are ready to step up the pace of our meetings and our discussions," the official said, adding the United States would also be prepared to hold bilateral talks with Tehran if it was serious about it.

(Reporting by Fredrik Dahl and Justyna Pawlak; Editing by Jon Boyle)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Israel fears new Palestinian uprising could erupt

SE'EER, West Bank (Reuters) - Masked Palestinian gunmen fired in the air on Monday as thousands marched at the West Bank funeral of a prisoner whose death in an Israeli jail has raised fears in Israel of a new uprising.

Arafat Jaradat's death on Saturday and a hunger strike by four other Palestinian inmates have raised tension in the occupied territory after repeated clashes between stone-throwers and Israeli soldiers in recent days.

Israeli troops, on high alert, took up positions outside Jaradat's home village of Se'eer, in likely earshot of the bursts of automatic fire from the half-dozen masked Palestinians in full battle dress.

"We sacrifice our souls and blood for you, our martyr!" mourners chanted.

The sounds and fury were reminiscent of the seven-year Intifada, or uprising, that started in 2000 after Israeli-Palestinian peace talks failed.

Israeli Homeland Minister Avi Dichter cautioned that another uprising could begin if confrontations with Palestinian protesters turned deadly.

The Israeli military said dozens of Palestinians had thrown stones at soldiers in various parts of the West Bank on Monday. Troops responded with tear gas and stun grenades, and no serious injuries were reported.

"The previous two Intifadas ... came about as a result of a high number of dead (during protests)," Dichter told Israel Radio. "Fatalities are almost a proven recipe for a sharper escalation."

THROWING STONES

Jaradat, 30, was arrested a week ago for throwing stones at Israeli cars in the West Bank.

Palestinian officials said he had died after being tortured in prison. But Israel said an autopsy carried out in the presence of a Palestinian coroner was inconclusive and that injuries such as broken ribs could have been caused by efforts to revive Jaradat.

Palestinian frustration has been fuelled by Israel's settlement expansion in the West Bank, a peace process in limbo since 2010 and a persisting rift between President Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority and the Islamists of Hamas who run Gaza.

"We have no choice but to continue the popular resistance and escalate it in the face of the occupation, whether it be the army or the settlers," Mahmoud Aloul, a senior member of Abbas's Fatah movement, told Reuters.

In Se'eer, local merchant Abu Issa, 45, said he was unsure whether what he described as Palestinian opposition to Israeli occupation would lead to an uprising.

"One day the Palestinian people will take a stand, but I don't know if that day is today," he said.

Abbas has said he will not allow a third armed Intifada.

"The Israelis want chaos ... We will not allow them to drag us into it and to mess with the lives of our children and our youth," Abbas told reporters in his office in the West Bank town of Ramallah.

"NOTHING GAINED"

Dichter said Israel had to tread carefully in dealing with protests, accusing the Palestinians of trying to portray themselves as victims before U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to the region next month.

"I don't think the Palestinian Authority will gain from an intifada, just as it didn't achieve anything from the first or second intifadas," he said.

"But I would say that, after conducting themselves with poor and warped thinking over the years, they don't always recognize what's in their best interests."

Israel demanded on Sunday that the Palestinian Authority stem the protests, many of which have taken place in areas outside the Authority's jurisdiction.

"They (the Palestinians) are trying to drag us to a situation where there will be dead children," Dichter said.

Palestinians have rallied to the cause of the four hunger-strikers, two of whom are being held without trial on suspicion of anti-Israeli activity.

Some 4,700 Palestinians are in Israeli jails and Palestinians see them as heroes in a struggle for statehood.

The death of any of the hunger-strikers, one of whom has been refusing food, off and on, for more than 200 days, would likely lead to more widespread violence.

The first Palestinian uprising began in 1987 and ended in 1993, when the Oslo interim peace accords were signed.

The second Intifada broke out in 2000 after the failure of talks on a final peace agreement. Over the following seven years, more than 1,000 Israelis died, half of them in suicide attacks mostly against civilians. More than 4,500 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces.

(Writing by Jeffrey Heller in Jerusalem; Additional reporting by Ori Lewis in Jerusalem and Ali Sawafta in Ramallah; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Insight: Spiral of Karachi killings widens Pakistan's sectarian divide

KARACHI (Reuters) - When Aurangzeb Farooqi survived an attempt on his life that left six of his bodyguards dead and a six-inch bullet wound in his thigh, the Pakistani cleric lost little time in turning the narrow escape to his advantage.

Recovering in hospital after the ambush on his convoy in Karachi, Pakistan's commercial capital, the radical Sunni Muslim ideologue was composed enough to exhort his followers to close ranks against the city's Shi'ites.

"Enemies should listen to this: my task now is Sunni awakening," Farooqi said in remarks captured on video shortly after a dozen gunmen opened fire on his double-cabin pick-up truck on December 25.

"I will make Sunnis so powerful against Shi'ites that no Sunni will even want to shake hands with a Shi'ite," he said, propped up in bed on emergency-room pillows. "They will die their own deaths, we won't have to kill them."

Such is the kind of speech that chills members of Pakistan's Shi'ite minority, braced for a new chapter of persecution following a series of bombings that have killed almost 200 people in the city of Quetta since the beginning of the year.

While the Quetta carnage grabbed world attention, a Reuters inquiry into a lesser known spate of murders in Karachi, a much bigger conurbation, suggests the violence is taking on a volatile new dimension as a small number of Shi'ites fight back.

Pakistan's Western allies have traditionally been fixated on the challenge posed to the brittle, nuclear-armed state by Taliban militants battling the army in the bleakly spectacular highlands on the Afghan frontier.

But a cycle of tit-for-tat killings on the streets of Karachi points to a new type of threat: a campaign by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and allied Pakistani anti-Shi'ite groups to rip open sectarian fault-lines in the city of 18 million people.

Police suspect LeJ, which claimed responsibility for the Quetta blasts, and its sympathizers may also be the driving force behind the murder of more than 80 Shi'ites in Karachi in the past six months, including doctors, bankers and teachers.

In turn, a number of hardline Sunni clerics who share Farooqi's suspicion of the Shi'ite sect have been killed in drive-by shootings or barely survived apparent revenge attacks. Dozens of Farooqi's followers have also been shot dead.

Discerning the motives for any one killing is murky work in Karachi, where multiple armed factions are locked in a perpetual all-against-all turf war, but detectives suspect an emerging Shi'ite group known as the Mehdi Force is behind some of the attacks on Farooqi's men.

While beleaguered secularists and their Western friends hope Pakistan will mature into a more confident democracy at general elections due in May, the spiral of killings in Karachi, a microcosm of the country's diversity, suggests the polarizing forces of intolerance are gaining ground.

"The divide is getting much bigger between Shia and Sunni. You have to pick sides now," said Sundus Rasheed, who works at a radio station in Karachi. "I've never experienced this much hatred in Pakistan."

Once the proud wearer of a silver Shi'ite amulet her mother gave her to hang around her neck, Rasheed now tucks away the charm, fearing it might serve not as protection, but mark her as a target.

"INFIDELS"

Fully recovered from the assassination attempt, Farooqi can be found in the cramped upstairs office of an Islamic seminary tucked in a side-street in Karachi's gritty Landhi neighborhood, an industrial zone in the east of the city.

On a rooftop shielded by a corrugated iron canopy, dozens of boys wearing skull caps sit cross-legged on prayer mats, imbibing a strict version of the Deobandi school of Sunni Islam that inspires both Farooqi and the foot-soldiers of LeJ.

"We say Shias are infidels. We say this on the basis of reason and arguments," Farooqi, a wiry, intense man with a wispy beard and cascade of shoulder-length curls, told Reuters. "I want to be called to the Supreme Court so that I can prove using their own books that they are not Muslims."

Farooqi, who cradled bejeweled prayer beads as he spoke, is the Karachi head of a Deobandi organization called Ahle Sunnat wal Jama'at. That is the new name for Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, a forerunner banned in 2002 in a wider crackdown on militancy by Pakistan's then army ruler, General Pervez Musharraf.

Farooqi says he opposes violence and denies any link to LeJ, but security officials believe his supporters are broadly aligned with the heavily armed group, whose leaders deem murdering Shi'ites an act of piety.

In the past year, LeJ has prosecuted its campaign with renewed gusto, emboldened by the release of Malik Ishaq, one of its founders, who was freed after spending 14 years in jail in July, 2011. Often pictured wearing a celebratory garland of pink flowers, Ishaq has since appeared at gatherings of supporters in Karachi and other cities.

In diverse corners of Pakistan, LeJ's cadres have bombed targets from mosques to snooker halls; yanked passengers off buses and shot them, and posted a video of themselves beheading a pair of trussed-up captives with a knife.

Nobody knows exactly how many Shi'ites there are in Pakistan -- estimates ranging from four to 20 percent of the population of 180 million underscore the uncertainty. What is clear is that they are dying faster than ever. At least 400 were killed last year, many from the ethnic Hazara minority in Quetta, according to Human Rights Watch, and some say the figure is far higher.

Pakistani officials suspect regional powers are stoking the fire, with donors in Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-dominated Gulf countries funding LeJ, while Shi'ite organizations turn to Iran.

Whatever factors are driving the violence, the state's ambivalent response has raised questions over the degree of tolerance for LeJ by elements in the security establishment, which has a long history of nurturing Deobandi proxies.

Under pressure in the wake of the Quetta bombings, police arrested Ishaq at his home in the eastern Punjab province on Friday under a colonial-era public order law.

But in Karachi, Farooqi and his thousands of followers project a new aura of confidence. Crowds of angry men chant "Shia infidel! Shia infidel" at rallies and burn effigies while clerics pour scorn on the sect from mosque loudspeakers after Friday prayers. A rash of graffiti hails Farooqi as a savior.

Over glasses of milky tea, he explained that his goal was to convince the government to declare Shi'ites non-Muslims, as it did to the Ahmadiyya sect in 1974, as a first step towards ostracizing the community and banning a number of their books.

"When someone is socially boycotted, he becomes disappointed and isolated. He realizes that his beliefs are not right, that people hate him," Farooqi said. "What I'm saying is that killing them is not the solution. Let's talk, let's debate and convince people that they are wrong."

CODENAME "SHAHEED"

Not far from Farooqi's seminary, in the winding lanes of the rough-and-tumble Malir quarter, Shi'ite leaders are kindling an awakening of their own.

A gleaming metallic chandelier dangles from the mirrored archway of a half-completed mosque rising near the modest offices of Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslemeen - known as MWM - a vocal Shi'ite party that has emerged to challenge Farooqi's ascent.

In an upstairs room, Ejaz Hussain Bahashti, an MWM leader clad in a white turban and black cloak, exhorts a gaggle of women activists to persuade their neighbors to join the cause.

Seated beneath a portrait of Ayatollah Khomeini, the Shi'ite cleric who led the 1979 Iranian revolution, Bahashti said his organization would not succumb to what he sees as a plan by LeJ to provoke sectarian conflict.

"In our sect, if we are being killed we are not supposed to carry out reprisal attacks," he told Reuters. "If we decided to take up arms, then no part of the country would be spared from terrorism - but it's forbidden."

The MWM played a big role in sit-ins that paralyzed parts of Karachi and dozens of other towns to protest against the Quetta bombings - the biggest Shi'ite demonstrations in years. But police suspect that some in the sect have chosen a less peaceful path.

Detectives believe the small Shi'ite Mehdi Force group, comprised of about 20 active members in Karachi, is behind several of the attacks on Deobandi clerics and their followers.

The underground network is led by a hardened militant codenamed "Shaheed", or martyr, who recruits eager but unseasoned middle-class volunteers who compensate for their lack of numbers by stalking high-profile targets.

"They don't have a background in terrorism, but after the Shia killings started they joined the group and they tried to settle the score," said Superintendent of Police Raja Umar Khattab. "They kill clerics."

In November, suspected Mehdi Force gunmen opened fire at a tea shop near the Ahsan-ul-Uloom seminary, where Farooqi has a following, killing six students. A scholar from the madrasa was shot dead the next month, another student killed in January.

"It was definitely a reaction, Shias have never gone on the offensive on their own," said Deputy Inspector-General Shahid Hayat.

According to the Citizens-Police Liaison Committee, a Karachi residents' group, some 68 members of Farooqi's Ahle Sunnat wal Jama'at and 85 Shi'ites were killed in the city from early September to February 19.

Police caution that it can be difficult to discern who is killing who in a vast metropolis where an array of political factions and gangs are vying for influence. A suspect has yet to be named, for example, in the slaying of two Deobandi clerics and a student in January whose killer was caught on CCTV firing at point blank range then fleeing on a motorbike.

Some in Karachi question whether well-connected Shi'ites within the city's dominant political party, the Muttahida Quami Movement, which commands a formidable force of gunmen, may have had a hand in some of the more sophisticated attacks, or whether rival Sunni factions may also be involved.

Despite the growing body count, Karachi can still draw on a store of tolerance. Some Sunnis made a point of attending the Shi'ite protests - a reminder that Farooqi's adherents are themselves a minority. Yet as Karachi's murder rate sets new records, the dynamics that have kept the city's conflicts within limits are being tested.

In the headquarters of an ambulance service founded by Abdul Sattar Edhi, once nominated for a Nobel Prize for devoting his life to Karachi's poor, controllers are busier than ever dispatching crews to ferry shooting victims to the morgue.

"The best religion of all is humanity," said Edhi, who is in his 80s, surveying the chaotic parade of street life from a chair on the pavement outside. "If religion doesn't have humanity, then it is useless."

(Editing by Robert Birsel)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

African leaders sign deal to end eastern Congo conflict

ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - A U.N .-mediated peace deal aimed at ending two decades of conflict in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo was signed on Sunday by leaders of Africa's Great Lakes region in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa.

African leaders failed to sign the deal last month after a disagreement over who would command a new regional force that will be deployed in eastern Congo and take on armed groups operating in the region.

The Democratic Republic of Congo's army is fighting the M23 rebels, who have hived off a fiefdom in eastern Congo's North Kivu province in a conflict has dragged Congo's eastern region back into war and displaced an estimated half a million people.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and leaders from Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo, Congo Republic and South Sudan were present at the signing of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Great Lakes.

Rwanda and Uganda had been accused by U.N. experts of supporting the rebels, an accusation they denied.

"It is my hope that the framework will lead to an era of peace and stability for the peoples of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the region," Ban said.

Congo's government and the rebels are holding talks in Uganda aimed reaching an agreement on a range of economic, political and security issues dividing the two sides, including amnesty for "war and insurgency acts", the release of political prisoners and reparation of damages due to the war.

"We ... commit ourselves to respect our obligations of this agreement we signed today, and we wish that all the signatories do the same," Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila said.

The rebels, who launched their offensive after accusing Kabila of reneging on the terms of a March 2009 peace agreement, have broadened their goals to include the removal of Kabila and "liberation" of the entire Congo.

(Reporting by Aaron Maasho; Editing by George Obulutsa)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

U.S. condemns Scud attack in Syria, invites opposition for talks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States condemned a Syrian army Scud missile attack that killed dozens of people on Friday in the city of Aleppo, and invited the Syrian opposition for talks on finding a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

A State Department statement said the attack on a district of Aleppo and other assaults such as strikes on city blocks and a field hospital were "the latest demonstrations of the Syrian regime's ruthlessness and its lack of compassion for the Syrian people it claims to represent."

The statement, released on Saturday, could help placate the main Syrian opposition grouping, which turned down invitations to visit Washington and Moscow to protest what it described as international silence over the destruction of the historic city of Aleppo by government missile strikes.

Almost two years since the start of the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad, rebels have wrested large swathes of Syria from the control of Assad's forces but the areas remain the target of army artillery, air strikes and, increasingly, missiles.

The decision by the Syrian National Coalition to spurn the invitations and to suspend participation in the Friends of Syria conference of international powers has put peace initiatives on ice.

In the State Department statement, spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Washington hoped to meet soon with the leadership of the opposition umbrella group "to discuss how the United States and other friends of the Syrian people can do more to help the Syrian people achieve the political transition that they demand and that they deserve."

Invitations from Washington and Moscow had been extended to opposition coalition leader Mouz Alkhatib after he met the Russian and U.S. foreign ministers in Munich earlier this month.

Alkhatib has tried to open channels to Russia and Iran, Assad's only remaining foreign backers, to put pressure on the Syrian strongman to leave power.

Alkhatib, a cleric from Damascus who has said he is morally obliged to try to seek an exit for Assad without more bloodshed, has been criticized by others in the SNC for acting alone.

The rocket attacks on an eastern districts of Aleppo, Syria's industrial and commercial hub, killed at least 29 people on Friday and trapped a family of 10 in the ruins of their home, opposition activists in the city said.

On Tuesday, activists said at least 20 people were killed when a large missile hit the rebel-held district of Jabal Badro, also in the east of the contested city.

(Reporting by Khaled Yacoub Oweis; Editing by Rosalind Russell)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Bulgarian protests for cheaper energy intensify

SOFIA (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of people marched in cities across Bulgaria on Sunday, demanding an end to high utility bills and new voting rules after the government was toppled last week.

Public anger with power monopolies in the European Union's poorest member forced right-of-center Prime Minister Boiko Borisov's cabinet to resign and has put the country on track for an early election by May.

Although Borisov's government managed to maintain fiscal stability since taking power in 2009, belt-tightening has held back growth and driven up unemployment.

His departure has failed to calm voters fed up with low living standards and rampant graft, and his GERB party is now running neck-and-neck with the opposition Socialists ahead of the new election.

The last straw for many was a jump in winter electricity bills that at times exceeded incomes in a country where average salaries are just 400 euros ($530) a month and pensions are less than half that amount.

Much of the anger has been directed at power companies including Czech CEZ and Energo-Pro and Austria's EVN, which bought exclusive rights to distribute energy in specific regions from Bulgaria in 2004.

Waving Bulgarian flags and slogans reading "Fighting for decent life" and "Down with monopolies" over 10,000 Bulgarians marched through downtown Sofia.

"For years and years the politicians failed to impose strict controls over monopolies. This should stop," said 54-year-old Irena Mitova, a shop owner in Sofia.

POWER BILLS

Demonstrations also took place in around 40 other cities, with some 15,000 people marching in Bulgaria's second and third largest cities Plovdiv and Varna.

Separate, smaller protests were held against an inefficient education system that critics say does not prepare students for the labor market and against high interest charges from retail banks criticized for hurting small businesses.

President Rosen Plevneliev, who will probably appoint a caretaker government and dissolve parliament next week to pave the way for the early election, met protesters and ensured them their voices would be heard.

Protesters' demands ranged from imposing a moratorium on paying electricity bills for December and January until audits are carried out to sweeping changes in the constitution to allow the direct vote for deputies, rather than using party lists.

Some of the protesters demanded parliament continue with its work to adopt laws to ensure strict controls over the energy monopolies. Many want them to be renationalized and say politicians sold firms since the fall of communism in 1989 in a way that hurt public interest and kept living standards low.

Borisov had promised an 8 percent cut in electricity bills as of March - reversing much of a 13 percent rise his government approved last year - and has said the energy regulator would begin the process to revoke CEZ's license.

The regulator said a possible price decrease could be introduced as of April at the earliest and suggested there was room for compromise with CEZ.

(Editing by Michael Winfrey and Alison Williams)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Frustrated Italians vote in crucial election for euro zone

ROME (Reuters) - Italians voted on Sunday in one of the most closely watched and unpredictable elections in years, with pent-up fury over a discredited elite adding to concern it may not produce a government strong enough to lead Italy out of an economic slump.

The election, which concludes on Monday afternoon, is being followed closely by investors; their memories are still fresh of the potentially catastrophic debt crisis that saw Mario Monti, an economics professor and former bureaucrat, summoned to serve as prime minister in place of Silvio Berlusconi 15 months ago.

A weak Italian government could, many fear, prompt a new dip in confidence in the European Union's single currency.

Opinion polls give the center-left a narrow lead but the result has been thrown completely open by the prospect of a huge protest vote against the painful austerity measures imposed by Monti's government and deep anger over a never-ending series of corruption scandals. Berlusconi's centre-right has also revived.

"I'm not confident that the government that emerges from the election will be able to solve any of our problems," said Attilio Bianchetti, a 55-year-old builder in Milan, who voted for the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement of comic and blogger Beppe Grillo.

The 64-year-old Grillo, heavily backed by a frustrated generation of young Italians hit by record unemployment, has been one of the biggest features of the last stage of the campaign, packing rallies in town squares up and down Italy.

"He's the only real new element in a political landscape where we've been seeing the same faces for too long," said Vincenzo Cannizzaro, 48, in the Sicialian capital Palermo.

Italians started voting at 8 a.m. (0700 GMT). Polling booths will remain open until 10 p.m. on Sunday and open again between 7 a.m. and 3 p.m. on Monday. Exit polls will come out soon after voting ends and official results are expected by early Tuesday.

Snow in northern regions is expected to last into Monday and could discourage some of the 47 million people eligible to vote in Italy to head out to polling stations, though the Interior Ministry has said it is fully prepared for bad weather.

Monti and his wife cast their votes at a polling booth in a Milan school on Sunday morning and centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani, the leader opinion polls suggest will have to form a new government, voted in his home town of Piacenza.

A small group of women's rights demonstrators greeted former prime minister Berlusconi when he voted in Milan. They bared their breasts in protest at the conservative leader, who is on trial at present for having sex with an underage prostitute.

Whichever government emerges from the election will have to tackle reforms needed to address problems that have given Italy one of the most sluggish economies in the developed world for the past two decades.

But the widespread despair over the state of the country, where a series of corruption scandals has highlighted the stark divide between a privileged political elite and millions of ordinary Italians, has left deep scars.

"It's our fault, Italian citizens. It's our closed mentality. We're just not Europeans," said Luciana Li Mandri, a 37-year-old public servant in Palermo.

"We're all about getting favors when we study, getting a protected job when we work. That's the way we are and we can only be represented by people like that as well," she said.

FRUSTRATION

Final polls published two weeks ago showed center-left leader Bersani with a 5-point lead, but analysts disagree about whether he will be able to form a stable majority that can make the economic reforms they believe Italy needs.

While the center left is still expected to gain control of the lower house, thanks to rules that guarantee a strong majority to whichever party wins the most votes nationally, a much closer battle will be fought for the Senate, which any government also needs to control to be able to pass laws.

The euro zone's third-largest economy is stuck in deep recession, struggling under a public debt burden second only to Greece in the 17-member currency bloc and with a public weary of more than a year of austerity policies.

Bersani is now thought to be just a few points ahead of media magnate Berlusconi, the four-times prime minister who has promised tax refunds and staged a media blitz in an attempt to win back voters.

Think-tank consultant Mario, 60, who was on his way to vote in Bologna, said Bersani's Democratic Party was the only serious grouping that could help solve the country's economic woes.

"They're not perfect," he said. "But they've got the organization and the union backing that will help them push through the structural reforms."

A strong fightback by Berlusconi, who has promised to repay a widely hated housing tax, the IMU, imposed by Monti last year, saw his support climb during a campaign that relentlessly attacked the "German-centric" austerity policies of the former European Union commissioner.

"I won't vote for Monti, and I don't think a lot of people will. He made a huge blunder with IMU," said 35-year-old hairdresser Marco Morando, preparing to vote in Milan.

But the populist frustration Berlusconi's campaign tapped into has also benefitted Grillo and many pollsters said his 5-Star Movement, made up of political novices, was challenging the center-right for the position as second political force.

"I'm very worried. There seems to be no way out from a political point of view, or from being able to govern," said Calogero Giallanza, a 45-year-old musician in Rome, who voted for Bersani's Democrats.

"There's bound to be a mess in the Senate because, as far as I can see, the 5-Star Movement is unstoppable."

(Additional reporting by Cristiano Corvino, Lisa Jucca, Jennifer Clark, Matthias Baehr and Sara Rossi in Milan, Stephen Jewkes in Bologna, Wladimir Pantaleone in Palermo, Stefano Bernabei and Massimiliano Di Giorgio in Rome; Editing by Robin Pomeroy and Alastair Macdonald)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Abe vows to revive Japanese economy, sees no escalation with China

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told Americans on Friday "I am back and so is Japan" and vowed to get the world's third biggest economy growing again and to do more to bolster security and the rule of law in an Asia roiled by territorial disputes.

Abe had firm words for China in a policy speech to a top Washington think-tank, but also tempered his remarks by saying he had no desire to escalate a row over islets in the East China Sea that Tokyo controls and Beijing claims.

"No nation should make any miscalculation about firmness of our resolve. No one should ever doubt the robustness of the Japan-U.S. alliance," he told the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"At the same time, I have absolutely no intention to climb up the escalation ladder," Abe said in a speech in English.

After meeting U.S. President Barack Obama on his first trip to Washington since taking office in December in a rare comeback to Japan's top job, he said he told Obama that Tokyo would handle the islands issue "in a calm manner."

"We will continue to do so and we have always done so," he said through a translator, while sitting next to Obama in the White House Oval Office.

Tension surged in 2012, raising fears of an unintended military incident near the islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China. Washington says the islets fall under a U.S.-Japan security pact, but it is eager to avoid a clash in the region.

Abe said he and Obama "agreed that we have to work together to maintain the freedom of the seas and also that we would have to create a region which is governed based not on force but based on an international law."

Abe, whose troubled first term ended after just one year when he abruptly quit in 2007, has vowed to revive Japan's economy with a mix of hyper-easy monetary policy, big spending, and structural reform. The hawkish leader is also boosting Japan's defense spending for the first time in 11 years.

"Japan is not, and will never be, a tier-two country," Abe said in his speech. "So today ... I make a pledge. I will bring back a strong Japan, strong enough to do even more good for the betterment of the world."

'ABENOMICS' TO BOOST TRADE

The Japanese leader stressed that his "Abenomics" recipe would be good for the United States, China and other trading partners.

"Soon, Japan will export more, but it will import more as well," Abe said in the speech. "The U.S. will be the first to benefit, followed by China, India, Indonesia and so on."

Abe said Obama welcomed his economic policy, while Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said the two leaders did not discuss currencies, in a sign that the U.S. does not oppose "Abenomics" despite concern that Japan is weakening its currency to export its way out of recession.

The United States and Japan agreed language during Abe's visit that could set the stage for Tokyo to join negotiations soon on a U.S.-led regional free trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

In a carefully worded statement following the meeting between Obama and Abe, the two countries reaffirmed that "all goods would be subject to negotiations if Japan joins the talks with the United States and 10 other countries.

At the same time, the statement envisions a possible outcome where the United States could maintain tariffs on Japanese automobiles and Japan could still protect its rice sector.

"Recognizing that both countries have bilateral trade sensitivities, such as certain agricultural products for Japan and certain manufactured products for the United States, the two governments confirm that, as the final outcome will be determined during the negotiations, it is not required to make a prior commitment to unilaterally eliminate all tariffs upon joining the TPP negotiations," the statement said.

Abe repeated that Japan would not provide any aid for North Korea unless it abandoned its nuclear and missile programs and released Japanese citizens abducted decades ago to help train spies.

Pyongyang admitted in 2002 that its agents had kidnapped 13 Japanese in the 1970s and 1980s. Five have been sent home, but Japan wants better information about eight who Pyongyang says are dead and others Tokyo believes were also kidnapped.

Abe also said he hoped to have a meeting with new Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who takes over as president next month, and would dispatch Finance Minister Taro Aso to attend the inauguration of incoming South Korean President Park Geun-hye next week.

(Additional reporting by Jeff Mason and Doug Palmer; Editing by David Brunnstrom and Paul Simao)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

North Korea warns U.S. forces of "destruction" ahead of war drills

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea on Sunday warned the top U.S. military commander stationed in South Korea that his forces would "meet a miserable destruction" if they go ahead with scheduled military drills with South Korean troops, North Korean state media said.

Pak Rim-su, chief delegate of the North Korean military mission to the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom, gave the message by phone to Gen. James Thurman, the commander of the U.S. Forces Korea, KCNA news agency said.

It came amid escalating tension on the divided Korean peninsula after the North's third nuclear test earlier this month, in defiance of U.N. resolutions, drew harsh international condemnation.

A direct message from the North's Panmunjom mission to the U.S. commander is rare.

North and South Korea are technically still at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

The U.S.-South Korean Combined Forces Command is holding an annual computer-based simulation war drill, Key Resolve, from March 11 to 25, involving 10,000 South Korean and 3,500 U.S. troops.

The command also plans to hold Foal Eagle joint military exercises involving land, sea and air manoeuvres. About 200,000 Korean troops and 10,000 U.S. forces are expected to be mobilized for the two month-long exercise which starts on March 1.

"If your side ignites a war of aggression by staging the reckless joint military exercises...at this dangerous time, from that moment your fate will be hung by a thread with every hour," Pak was quoted as saying.

"You had better bear in mind that those igniting a war are destined to meet a miserable destruction."

Washington and Seoul regularly hold military exercises which they say are purely defensive. North Korea, which has stepped up its bellicose threats towards the United States and South Korea in recent months, sees them as rehearsals for invasion.

North Korea threatened South Korea with "final destruction" during a debate at the U.N. Conference on Disarmament on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Sung-won Shim; Editing by Nick Macfie)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Iraq president's health improving, can now talk: doctor

KIRKUK, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraqi President Jalal Talabani is now able to talk, his doctor said, adding he was hopeful the Kurdish statesman would soon be fit to return to Iraq from Germany, where he has been receiving medical treatment for a stroke.

A peace-maker who often mediated among Iraq's Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish factions, 79-year-old Talabani was flown abroad in December in critical condition.

"I am in continuous contact with the German team treating President Talabani," said Najmaldin Karim, who is also governor of the city of Kirkuk.

"He can talk now with the people around him and started to think in a good way. I and the German team are optimistic that he will get much better and can return back to Iraq soon."

During Talabani's absence, Iraq's political crisis has intensified, with thousands of Sunni Muslims taking to the streets in protest against the Shi'ite-led government

The veteran politician often worked to ease tensions in the country's fragile power-sharing government and negotiated between Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdistan region, which are locked in feud over land and oil rights.

(Writing by Isabel Coles; Editing by Nick Macfie)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Spain grumbles as king's son-in-law appears in court

PALMA DE MALLORCA, Spain (Reuters) - The Spanish king's son-in-law appeared before a judge on the island of Mallorca on Saturday to respond to charges of tax fraud in a six-million-euro embezzlement case that has eroded public support for the once-popular royal family.

The scandal and other corruption cases in which politicians are accused of taking millions of euros in bribes have enraged Spaniards at a time when unemployment has soared to 26 percent in a deep recession.

Inaki Urdangarin, a former Olympics handball player who is married to the king's daughter, the Infanta Cristina, is accused of using his powerful connections to win public contracts to put on events on the Mediterranean island of Mallorca and elsewhere in Spain.

His Noos Foundation is suspected of overcharging for organizing conferences about the business of sports and hiding the proceeds abroad.

Dozens of police officials guarded the courthouse in Palma as Urdangarin got out of a car and walked down a 30-metre access ramp into the building for the closed-door hearing where he will be questioned by Examining Magistrate Jose Castro.

Near the courthouse, a few hundred protesters chanted and held up signs reading "down with the monarchy" and "they call this a democracy but it isn't".

More than a hundred journalists were also on hand.

In Spain's legal system, lengthy pre-trial investigations are carried out by an examining magistrate, or judge. Urdangarin, 45, is charged with fraud, forgery, embezzlement and corruption. If convicted, he could face a prison sentence and fines.

Urdangarin was first charged and called in for questioning in 2011, but a trial could still be months or years away as the judge continues his probe and adds or dismisses charges.

Judge Castro was expected to question Urdangarin for most of the day on Saturday and perhaps into the early hours of Sunday.

Urdangarin is fighting an order that he and a former business partner in the Noos Foundation post bail of 8.2 million euros. His assets could be seized if he does not meet bail.

The judge will also question on Saturday Carlos Garcia Revenga, former treasurer for the Noos Foundation and also private secretary to Urdangarin's wife, Cristina, 47.

Judge Castro is trying to find out how much the Infanta Cristina knew about the business of the foundation. A criminal indictment of the king's daughter would be an unprecedented accusation against a royal in Spain.

Cristina is the only one of five directors of the Noos Foundation that has not been charged with a crime.

PHOTOGRAPHS REMOVED

The royal family has taken efforts to distance itself from Urdangarin, whose official title is Duke of Palma. Photos of him have been wiped off the royal website. He has also been banned from royal family events for over a year.

In Spain's severe economic downturn, more companies announce lay-offs each week. Tens of thousands of homeowners have defaulted on their mortgages and been evicted from their homes. The government has cut public salaries and spending on health and education.

Public angst over the economy has been aggravated by a number of high-profile corruption cases from the 1990s and early 2000s, when a tax bonanza from a property boom fuelled massive public spending on events and infrastructure that now look like folly.

In another case that has rocked Spain, prosecutors are looking into millions of euros in Swiss bank accounts controlled by a former politician from the ruling People's Party, Luis Barcenas, who is charged with bribery, money laundering and tax evasion.

In Palma, where a number of corruption cases have surfaced, Urdangarin has become a despised figure.

The local government held a news event earlier this month and in front of television crews ceremoniously removed a street sign "Boulevard of the Duke and Duchess of Palma" and renamed the street.

"It's a disgrace for our islands that have been so supportive of the royal family," said Esperanza Ruiz, a resident of Palma, as she shopped in a supermarket near the courthouse.

King Juan Carlos, who took the throne in 1975, was the most popular public figure in Spain in the late 1970s because of his role in supporting the transition to democracy after the long Francisco Franco dictatorship.

But for the first time, politicians have openly called for him to abdicate and hand the throne to his son, Prince Felipe, as his prestige has eroded due to the Urdangarin case, as well as his own missteps. Metroscopia polling firm figures show his approval rating has fallen to 58 percent from much higher levels.

Last year, when Spain seemed on the brink of bankruptcy and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was imposing unpopular budget cuts, the king fell and broke his hip during an elephant hunting safari with wealthy friends in Botswana.

The king, 75, made an unprecedented public apology for the trip, which had been secret until his accident.

(Writing by Fiona Ortiz; Editing by Nick Macfie)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Egypt president will modify parliament election dates: speaker

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt's President Mohamed Mursi will modify the dates of upcoming parliamentary elections after requests from Christian lawmakers to change them, the speaker of parliament's upper house said on Saturday.

Members of the Coptic Christian minority had objected to the election dates Mursi announced on Thursday, as some voting would be held during their Easter celebrations.

"The president answered the requests of the Coptic members and will issue a statement changing the dates of the elections," Ahmed Fahmy, the speaker of the Shura Council, told lawmakers. He did not say when Mursi would make an announcement.

(Reporting by Alexander Dziadosz)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Russia, China oppose military intervention in North Korea

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia and China said on Friday they would oppose any foreign military intervention in North Korea over its recent nuclear test.

The two countries' foreign ministers condemned last week's test but said any action against North Korea had to be agreed at the United Nations, where Russia and China have the right of veto as permanent members of the Security Council.

"We are against the carrying out of a nuclear test in North Korea," Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told a joint news conference after talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.

"The U.N. Security Council should give an adequate response ... but the action should be directed towards peace on the Korean peninsula," he said.

Lavrov said China and Russia had agreed that it was "vitally important not to ... allow the situation to be used as a pretext for military intervention."

North Korea's latest test, its third since 2006, prompted warnings from Washington and others that more sanctions would be imposed on the isolated state.

The U.N. Security Council has only just tightened sanctions on Pyongyang after it launched a long-range rocket in December.

The North is banned under U.N. sanctions from developing missile or nuclear technology after its 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests.

(Reporting by Alessandra Prentice, Writing by Thomas Grove, Editing by Timothy Heritage)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Syrian opposition says Assad cannot be part of deal

CAIRO (Reuters) - The opposition Syrian National Coalition is willing to negotiate a peace deal to end the country's civil war but President Bashar al-Assad must step down and cannot be a party to any settlement, members agreed after debating a controversial initiative by their president.

The meeting of the 70-member Western, Arab and Turkish-backed coalition began on Thursday before Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem is due for talks in Moscow, one of Assad's last foreign allies, and as U.N. mediator Lakhdar Brahimi renews efforts for a deal.

After an angry late night session in which coalition president Moaz Alkhatib came under strong criticism from Islamist and liberal members alike for proposing talks with Assad's government without setting what they described as clear goals, the coalition adopted a political document that demands Assad's removal and trial for the bloodshed, members said.

A draft document seen by Reuters that was circulated for debate said Assad cannot be party to any political solution and has to be tried, but did not directly call for his removal.

"We have adopted the political document that sets the parameters for any talks. The main addition to the draft is a clause about the necessity of Assad stepping step down," said Abdelbasset Sida, a member of the coalition's 12 member politburo who has criticized Alkhatib for acting alone.

"We removed a clause about a need for Russian and U.S. involvement in any talks and added that the coalition's leadership has to be consulted before launching any future initiatives," he added.

Still, the agreement marked a softening of tone by the coalition because previously it had insisted that Assad must step down before any talks with his government could begin.

In an indication that Syria's strongman remains defiant, Brahimi said Assad had told him he will remain president until his term ends in 2014 and then run for re-election.

Brahimi told al-Arabiya television he wants to see a transitional government formed in Syria that would not answer to any higher authority and lasts until U.N.-supervised elections take place in the country.

"I am of the view that U.N. peacekeepers should come to Syria as happened in other countries," Brahimi said.

BOMB, AIR STRIKES

The opposition front convened in Cairo on a day when a car bomb jolted central Damascus, killing 53 people, wounding 200 and incinerating cars on a busy highway close to the Russian Embassy and offices of the ruling Baath Party.

Syrian state television blamed the suicide blast on "terrorists". Central Damascus has been relatively insulated from the 23-month conflict that has killed around 70,000 people, but the bloodshed has shattered suburbs around the capital.

In the southern city of Deraa near the border with Jordan, activists said warplanes bombed the old quarter for the first time since March 2011, when the town set in a wheat-growing plain rose up against Assad, starting a national revolt.

A rebel officer in the Tawheed al-Janoub brigade which led an offensive this week in Deraa said there were at least five air strikes on Thursday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 18 people were killed, including eight rebel fighters.

Coalition member Munther Makhos, who was forced into exile in the 1970s for his opposition to Assad's father, the late President Hafez al-Assad, said supplies from Iran and Russia were giving government forces an awesome firepower advantage.

"It would be surreal to imagine that a political solution is possible. Bashar al-Assad will not send his deputy to negotiate his removal. But we are keeping the door open," Makhos said.

Makhos is the only Alawite in the Islamist-dominated coalition. The Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam which accounts for about 10 percent of Syria's population but makes up most of the intelligence apparatus and dominates the army and the political system, has generally remained behind Assad.

With Alawites feeling increasingly threatened by a violent Sunni backlash, Alkhatib, a cleric from Damascus who played a role in the peaceful protest movement against Assad at the beginning of the uprising in 2011, has been calling on Alawites to join the revolution, saying their participation will help preserve the social fabric of the country.

Alkhatib's supporters say the initiative has popular support inside Syria from people who want to see a peaceful departure of Assad and a halt to the war that has increasingly pitted his fellow Alawites against Syria's Sunni Muslim majority.

But rebel fighters on the ground, over whom Alkhatib has little control, are generally against the proposal.

The Syrian Islamic Liberation Front, which represents armed brigades, said in a statement it was opposed to Alkhatib's initiative because it ignored the revolt's goal of "the downfall of the regime and all its symbols".

"We are demanding his accountability for the bloodshed and destruction he has wreaked. I think the message is clear enough," said veteran opposition campaigner Walid al-Bunni, who supports Alkhatib.

Alkhatib formulated the initiative in broad terms last month after talks with the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers in Munich but without consulting the coalition, catching the umbrella organization by surprise.

Among Alkhatib's critics is the Muslim Brotherhood, the only organized group in the political opposition.

A Brotherhood source said the group will not scuttle the proposal because it was confident Assad is not interested in a negotiated exit, which could help convince the international community to support the armed struggle for his removal.

"Russia is key," the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We are showing the international community that we are willing to take criticism from the street but the problem is Assad and his inner circle. They do not want to leave."

PLAY FOR RUSSIA

Russia hopes Alkhatib will visit soon in search of a breakthrough. Bunni said Alkhatib would not go to Moscow without the coalition's approval and that he would not be there at the same time as Moualem.

"In my opinion Alkhatib should not go to Moscow until Russia stops sending arms shipments to the Assad regime," Bunni said.

Formal backing by the coalition for Alkhatib's initiative gives it more weight internationally and undermines Assad supporters' argument that the opposition is too divided to be considered a serious player, opposition sources said.

Coalition members and diplomats based in the region said Brahimi asked Alkhatib in Cairo last week to seek full coalition backing for his plan, which resembles the U.N. envoy's own ideas for a negotiated settlement.

One diplomat in contact with the opposition and the United Nations had said a coalition approval of Alkhatib's initiative could help change the position of Russia, which has blocked several United Nations Security Council resolutions on Syria.

The diplomat said only a U.N. resolution could force Assad to the negotiating table, and a U.N. "stabilization force" may still be needed to prevent an all-out slide into a civil war.

"Brahimi has little hope that Assad will agree to any serious talks," the diplomat said. "Differences are narrowing between the United States and Russia about Syria but Moscow remains the main obstacle for Security Council action."

(Editing by Paul Taylor and Mohammad Zargham)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Iran appears to advance in construction of Arak nuclear plant

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran appears to be advancing in its construction of a research reactor Western experts say could offer the Islamic state a second way of producing material for a nuclear bomb, if it decided to embark on such a course, a U.N. report showed.

Iran has almost completed installation of cooling and moderator circuit piping in the heavy water plant near the town of Arak, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a confidential report issued to member states late on Thursday.

Nuclear analysts say this type of reactor could yield plutonium for nuclear arms if the spent fuel is reprocessed, something Iran has said it has no intention of doing. Iran has said it "does not have reprocessing activities", the IAEA said.

In its previous report on Iran, in November, the Vienna-based U.N. agency said installation work at Arak was continuing, without giving any indication of how far advanced it was.

Iran rejects Western allegations it seeks to develop a capability to assemble nuclear weapons, saying its atomic program is entirely peaceful and that the Arak reactor will produce isotopes for medical and agricultural use.

Iran says it plans to begin operating the facility in the first quarter of 2014, the IAEA said. Tehran last year postponed the planned start-up from the third quarter of 2013, a target that Western experts said always had seemed unrealistic.

The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based research and advocacy group, said late last year that it was questionable whether Iran would be able to meet the new target date as well, in view of "significant delays and impeded access to necessary materials" because of international sanctions imposed on Iran.

Western worries about Iran are focused largely on uranium enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow, as such material refined to a high level can provide the fissile core of an atomic bomb. But experts say Arak may also be a proliferation issue.

The Arak facility is a "growing source of concern", said Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the non-proliferation and disarmament program of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think-tank.

Israel, believed to be the Middle East's only nuclear-armed state, sees Iran's nuclear program as a serious danger and has threatened to attack its atomic sites if diplomacy and sanctions fail to resolve the decade-old dispute.

If it does, the nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow and Arak in central Iran are likely to be targets. Fitzpatrick said it could be Arak that triggers a conflict because attacking it after it is launched could cause an environmental disaster.

TESTING FUEL FOR ARAK REACTOR

Thursday's quarterly IAEA report showed Iran expanding its uranium enrichment program in defiance of tightening Western sanctions, installing advanced centrifuge machines at its main enrichment plant near the town of Natanz.

The report, issued just a few days before six world powers and Iran are due to resume negotiations after an eight-month hiatus, underlined the tough task facing the West in seeking to pressure Tehran to curb its nuclear activities.

Cliff Kupchan, Middle East director at the Eurasia consultancy, said Iran had adopted a defiant policy of pressing ahead with its nuclear program, despite harsh sanctions.

"As a result, Israel and the U.S. Congress will press a receptive U.S. administration to move forward with new and even harsher sanctions," he said in a research note.

Enriched uranium can fuel nuclear power plants, Iran's stated aim, but also provide the explosive core of a nuclear weapon if refined much further. Making plutonium from spent fuel is a second way of obtaining potential bomb material.

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a U.S. think-tank, noted that Iran planned to use a medical research reactor in Tehran, known as TRR, to test fuel for Arak.

"The TRR is now more than a medical isotope production reactor, Iran's stated use for the reactor, and is necessary for the operation" of Arak, it said in a report.

If operated optimally, the heavy-water plant could produce about nine kilograms (20 pounds) of plutonium a year, or enough for about two nuclear bombs annually, ISIS has said previously.

"Before it could use any of the plutonium in a nuclear weapon, however, it would first have to separate the plutonium from the irradiated fuel," it added on its website.

Iran has repeatedly declared it has no plans to reprocess the spent fuel. But, "similarly sized reactors ostensibly built for research" have been used by India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan to make plutonium for weapons, Fitzpatrick said.

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Magistrate starts Pistorius bail decision

PRETORIA (Reuters) - South African magistrate Desmond Nair started reading his decision on Friday on the bail hearing of Oscar Pistorius, the athletics star accused of murdering his girlfriend.

Nair is expected to summarise arguments for and against bail before announcing his decision.

(Reporting by Peroshni Govender; Editing by Ed Cropley)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Germany: U.S. to keep 8,000-12,000 troops in Afghanistan post-2014

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Germany's Defense Minister Thomas de Maiziere said on Friday that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told NATO allies gathered in Brussels that the United States would keep between 8,000 and 12,000 troops in Afghanistan after 2014, when the NATO combat mission is due to end.

"The American defense secretary announced that the United States will be in a magnitude of 8,000 to 12,000 troops involved in Afghanistan" post-2014, the German minister said.

Panetta or his aides were not immediately available to comment. He was due to address a news conference shortly.

(Reporting by Ilona Wissenbach)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Malian forces hunt suspected Islamists in Gao : witnesses

GAO, Mali (Reuters) - Malian troops opened fire on the mayor's office in the northern town of Gao with mounted machineguns on Thursday to try and dislodge suspected Islamist gunmen holed up inside, witnesses said.

Gunfire and explosions rang out in the early hours across the town, where French and Malian troops have been working to secure the area against bombings and guerrilla attacks by Islamist rebels, witnesses said.

French and Malian military spokesmen were not immediately available to comment on what led to the clash.

Gao is the biggest town in northern Mali, which was retaken from al Qaeda-linked Islamists last month in a lightning French offensive on behalf of the Malian government.

A Reuters journalist near the mayor's office said six Malian military pickups were deployed in the square nearby on Thursday and had opened fire with the heavy machineguns.

A Gao resident said he heard an explosion and then saw a Malian military vehicle on fire in a nearby street. The cause of the blast and fire was unclear.

Thursday's clashes came nearly two weeks after French and Malian forces fought hours of street battles with Islamists who had infiltrated the town.

(Reporting by Emanuel Braun and Joe Penney; Additional reporting by David Lewis; Writing by David Lewis and Pascal Fletcher; Editing by Pravin Char)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Cameroon, Nigeria officials deny French hostages freed

YAOUNDE (Reuters) - The fate of seven French tourists seized in Cameroon by suspected Nigerian Islamist militants was unclear on Thursday after government officials denied French media reports that they had been freed.

The hostages, four children and three adults, were captured this week while on an excursion to the Waza national park near Cameroon's border with Nigeria.

Several French media reported earlier on Thursday that the hostages had been found alive in a house in northern Nigeria and freed.

"The hostages are safe and sound and are in the hands of Nigerian authorities," BFMTV quoted a Cameroon army officer as saying.

"This is a crazy rumor that we cannot confirm. We do not know where is it coming from," Cameroon Communications Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary said by telephone from the capital Yaounde.

Sagir Musa, a spokesman for Nigeria's military, told Reuters the report was "not true."

Kader Arif, France's minister for veterans' affairs, told parliament on Thursday that the seven hostages had been released but retracted his statement minutes later, saying he had been quoting media reports and there was no official confirmation.

It was the first case of foreigners being seized by suspected Islamist militants in the mainly Muslim north of Cameroon, a former French colony.

The region is seen as being within the operational sphere of Nigerian sect Boko Haram and another Islamist militant group, Ansaru.

The threat to French nationals in the region has grown since France deployed thousands of troops to nearby Mali to root out al Qaeda-linked Islamists who took control of the country's north last year.

The kidnapping in Cameroon brought to 15 the number of French citizens being held in West Africa.

French diplomatic sources said the government would not confirm the hostages had been released until it had physical proof, or until they were in French hands.

(Reporting By Emile Picy and Nicholas Vinocur in Paris; Additional reporting by Joe Brock in Abuja and Bate Felix and John Irish in Dakar; Editing by Pravin Char and Tom Pfeiffer)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Car bomb kills 35 near Damascus ruling party building

BEIRUT (Reuters) - A car bomb killed at least 35 people and wounded more than 200 in central Damascus on Thursday when it exploded on a busy highway close to ruling Baath Party offices and the Russian embassy, Syrian television said.

TV footage showed at least four charred and bloodied bodies strewn across the street after the blast, which state media said was the result of a suicide bombing by "terrorists" battling President Bashar al-Assad.

Central Damascus has been relatively insulated from almost two years of unrest and civil war in which around 70,000 people have been killed across the country, but the bloodshed has shattered suburbs around the capital.

Rebels who control districts to the south and east of Damascus have attacked Assad's power base for nearly a month and struck with devastating bombs over the last year.

The al Qaeda-linked rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra, which claimed responsibility for several of those bombs, says it carried out 17 attacks around Damascus in the first half of February, including at least seven bombings.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll from Thursday's attack in the Mazraa district of Damascus at 31, mostly civilians. Other activists said 40 people had died, including children from a nearby school.

Opposition activists reported further explosions elsewhere in the city after the mid-morning explosion in Mazraa.

One resident in the heart of the capital heard three or four projectiles whistling through the sky, followed by explosions. At least one of them landed in a public garden in the Abu Rummaneh district, she said, but no one was hurt.

EMBASSY DAMAGED

The Britain-based Observatory, which monitors violence via a network of sources inside Syria, said the Mazraa car bomb detonated at a checkpoint close to the Baath Party building, located about 200 meters (660 feet) from the Russian embassy.

Russia's Itar-Tass news agency quoted a diplomat as saying the blast blew out windows at the embassy but no employees were wounded. "The building has really been damaged ... The windows are shattered," the diplomat said.

The vehicle was carrying between 1 and 1.5 tonnes of explosives, Damascus Governor Bishr Sabban told Reuters.

A correspondent for Syrian television said he saw seven body bags with corpses at the scene. He counted 17 burnt-out cars and another 40 that were destroyed or badly damaged by the force of the blast, which ripped a crater 1.5 meters deep into the road.

The official SANA news agency said casualties included children at a nearby school in Mazraa, which it described as a busy residential district of the capital.

Later, the Observatory reported, two car bombs exploded outside security centers in the northeastern district of Barzeh, but there were no details of casualties.

Syrian TV said security forces detained a would-be suicide bomber with five bombs in his car, one of them weighing 300 kg (440 pounds).

(Additional reporting by Marwan Makdesi in Damascus, Laila Bassam and Mariam Karouny in Beirut and Alissa de Carbonnel in Moscow; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Pakistan accuses ambassador to U.S. of blasphemy

MULTAN, Pakistan (Reuters) - Pakistani police accused the country's ambassador to the United States on Thursday of blasphemy, a crime that carries the death penalty, in connection with a 2010 TV talk show, they said.

The accusation against Ambassador Sherry Rehman is the latest in a string of controversial blasphemy cases in Pakistan, a largely Muslim nation whose name translates as Land of the Pure.

According to Pakistan's blasphemy laws, anyone found to have uttered words derogatory to the Prophet Muhammad can be put to death. Those who are accused are sometimes lynched by mobs even before they reach court.

Rehman has already faced death threats from militants after calling for reforms to the country's anti-blasphemy law, according to court documents. Two politicians who suggested reforming the law were assassinated.

The case against Rehman was brought by businessman Muhammad Faheem Gill, 31, who said that the comments Rehman made about the law on the Pakistani talk show in 2010 were blasphemous.

"I've been trying to get this case registered for the last three years, ever since I saw that TV show," Gill told Reuters. "I've even gone to the highest court. I'm glad that action will finally be taken now."

Gill went to the Supreme Court with his complaint after police refused to register it. The court ordered police in the central Pakistani city of Multan to investigate.

Blasphemy accusations are on the rise, according to a report released by the Islamabad-based think tank, Center for Security Studies. At least 52 people accused of blasphemy have been killed since 1990.

The charge is difficult to defend since blasphemy is not defined and courts often hesitate to hear evidence, fearful that reproducing it will also be blasphemy.

Recent cases have included a teacher who made a mistake setting homework, a man who threw away a business card belonging to a man name Mohammed, and a Pakistani Christian girl, Rimsha Masih, who was accused of burning pages of Muslim holy texts last year.

The teenager was cleared by a court after it emerged that she may have been framed by a cleric trying to evict Christians from his area. She and her family are now in hiding.

Rehman, a prominent member of the ruling Pakistan People's Party, was appointed as ambassador to the United States in November 2011.

(Writing By Mehreen Zahra-Malik; Editing by Katharine Houreld)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Bulgarian parliament accepts government's resignation

SOFIA (Reuters) - Bulgaria's parliament on Thursday accepted the government's decision to resign in the face of anti-austerity protests, leaving the European Union's poorest state with political uncertainty that may persist beyond early elections.

Outgoing Prime Minister Boiko Borisov, who had won praise from investors by cutting the Balkan country's budget deficit, lost support among voters weary of persistent poverty and graft. Those voters may now seek solace from more populist politicians.

After mass protests set off by high energy bills, Borisov stepped down on Wednesday -- the latest administration to fall in Europe's four-year-old debt crisis.

Parliament voted on Thursday to accept the move and President Rosen Plevneliev will now ask the three biggest parties if they want to form a government to rule until a parliamentary election due in July.

But both Borisov's GERB party and the main opposition Socialists have said they have no interest in participating in a caretaker cabinet, and analysts say that means Plevneliev could schedule an election for as early as April.

"Big change can come only through new elections, which should come as soon as possible," said Socialist leader Sergei Stanishev.

The cabinet's departure brought calm after a chaotic week of rallies against the government and foreign-owned power utilities and a threat by Bulgarian officials to strip one of them, Czech power group CEZ, of its license.

Boriana Dimitrova, an analyst with pollster Alpha Research, said it could push voters towards the political fringe.

"The two key political powers are not strong enough to form a stable government," she said. "The recent protests indicate there is growing support for radical, populist parties, which will also make it harder to form a cabinet."

CALM, FOR NOW

Borisov, a former guard to Soviet-era dictator Todor Zhivkov, won adoration from voters by building highways and improving roads so badly pot-holed that cars could lose wheels and travel across the small country could take up most of a day.

Around 2,000 Bulgarians waving GERB party flags, including farmers driving tractors and a truck full of pigs, cheered in front of parliament in support of Borisov.

Entering parliament just before the vote, Borisov called for them to go home and maintain public order: "I want to thank everyone who supported us and those who did not. And let's try to keep the peace in the next few months."

His administration also impressed foreign portfolio investors by freezing wages and pensions and cracking down on the grey economy by digitally linking firms ranging from the largest factory to the smallest kiosk to the tax office.

But those moves angered many in the Black Sea state of 7.3 million, who are also frustrated at his failure to make good on his 2009 election pledge to stamp out endemic corruption.

"Am I pleased with Borisov's resignation? He's just the same as the ones before. They're all corrupt and they don't care about people," said Filip Ivanov, a 37-year-old taxi driver.

Borisov's popularity has suffered due to growing frustration over the slow plod from poverty of a country which has failed to grow convincingly since it plunged into recession in 2009.

It just avoided the double-dip contraction that hit the EU's east last year but is still stuck with living standards of about 45 percent of the EU average, the bloc's lowest.

For many here, where wages average about 400 euros a month and pensions about half that, the final straw was winter power bills that at times exceeded incomes due to price rises that began to bite as temperatures fell.

In protests this month, tens of thousands blocked roads and in some cases clashed with police and attacked the offices of power distributors CEZ, Czech Energo Pro and Austrian EVN .

The utilities say the increase was in line with a government approved hike prices last year and they had done nothing wrong.

Borisov's threat to strip CEZ of its power distribution license has also put Sofia at odds with fellow European Union member the Czech Republic and raised eyebrows over its adherence to the bloc's stipulation that its members follow due process.

But Bulgaria's power regulator appeared to soften its stance slightly on Wednesday, saying CEZ may be able to keep its license if it reverses violations of the public procurement law. CEZ shares fell 2.8 percent on Thursday to a four-year low.

Before stepping down, Borisov tried to appease voters by sacking Finance Minister Simeon Djankov, a lightning rod for criticism for his leading the charge on belt tightening.

The government decided to free up 1 billion euros in EU farming subsidies that Djankov had held back. Borisov has also unveiled a plan to cut power bills by 8 percent this year.

For their part, the Socialists have pledged to raise taxes on the rich and scrap a flat 10 percent income tax rate it introduced in 2009 that has been a draw for foreign investors.

They also want to raise the minimum wage and will consider renationalizing utilities, a prospect Borisov has rejected.

"We should have a strong state in the economy as a regulator and investor and a new social state that will defend Bulgarians," Stanishev, the leader of the Socialists, said.

(Reporting by Tsvetelia Ilieva; writing by Michael Winfrey; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

British PM regrets "deeply shameful" colonial Indian massacre

AMRITSAR, India (Reuters) - David Cameron on Wednesday became the first serving British prime minister to voice regret about one of the bloodiest episodes in colonial India, a massacre of unarmed civilians in the city of Amritsar in 1919.

The killings, known in India as the Jallianwala Bagh massacre, were described by Mahatma Gandhi, the father of the Indian independence movement, as having shaken the foundations of the British Empire. A group of soldiers opened fire on an unarmed crowd without warning in the northern Indian city after a period of unrest, killing hundreds in cold blood.

Cameron's visit and expression of regret for what happened stopped short of an apology - but made it clear he considers the episode a stain on Britain's past.

Dressed in a dark suit, Cameron laid a wreath at a memorial to the massacre, a terracotta-colored stone obelisk. He then stood in front of the monument in silence for a few moments.

"This is a deeply shameful event in British history, one that Winston Churchill rightly described at the time as 'monstrous'," Cameron wrote in a visitor book, referring to the former British leader.

The gesture, coming on the third and final day of a visit to India aimed at drumming up trade and investment, is seen as an attempt to improve relations with Britain's former colonial possession and to court around 1.5 million British voters of Indian origin ahead of a 2015 election.

Before his visit, Cameron said there were ties of history between the two countries, "both the good and the bad".

"In Amritsar, I want to take the opportunity to pay my respects at Jallianwala Bagh," he had said ahead of the visit. Cameron also visited Amritsar's Golden Temple, Sikhism's holiest shrine.

The British report into the Amritsar massacre at the time said 379 people had been killed and 1,200 wounded. But a separate inquiry commissioned by the Indian pro-independence movement said around 1,000 people had been killed in the city in Punjab.

Brigadier-General Reginald Dyer, the man who gave the order to fire, explained his decision by saying he felt it was necessary to "teach a moral lesson to the Punjab".

Some in Britain hailed him "as the man who saved India", but others condemned him. India became independent in 1947.

Many historians consider the massacre a turning point that undermined British rule of India. It was, they say, one of the moments that caused Gandhi and the pro-independence Indian National Congress movement to lose trust in the British, inspiring them to embark on a path of civil disobedience.

"MONSTROUS EVENT"

Other British politicians and dignitaries - though no serving prime minister - have expressed regret about the incident before.

In 1920, Winston Churchill, then the Secretary of State for War, called the Amritsar massacre "a monstrous event", saying it was "not the British way of doing business".

On a visit to Amritsar in 1997, Queen Elizabeth called it a distressing episode, but said history could not be rewritten. However, her husband, Prince Philip, courted controversy during the visit when he questioned the higher Indian death toll.

Before he became prime minister, Tony Blair also visited, saying the memorial at Amritsar was a reminder of "the worst aspects of colonialism".

In recent years, British leaders have begun to apologize for some of the excesses of the empire.

Visiting Pakistan in 2011, Cameron angered traditionalists at home saying Britain had caused many of the world's problems, including the Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan.

When in office, Blair apologized for the 19th century Irish potato famine and for Britain's involvement in the slave trade, while Gordon Brown, his successor, apologized for the fact that British children were shipped to Australia and other Commonwealth countries between the 1920s and 1960s.

India's colonial history remains a sensitive subject for many Indians, particularly nationalists who want Britain to recognize and apologize for its excesses.

Sunil Kapoor, 36, whose great-grandfather was killed in the massacre, said he was pleased Cameron had come but said he would have liked a formal apology - feelings echoed by some Indians on Twitter.

"We have been waiting for justice from the British and Indian government for 94 years," said Kapoor. "If they think it's shameful, why shouldn't they apologize?." He said he was disappointed that Cameron had not met some of the descendants of those killed who had come to talk to him.

Cameron has said the two countries enjoy a "special relationship", a term usually reserved for Britain's relations with the United States.

For now, Britain's economy is the sixth largest in the world and India's the 10th. But India is forecast to overtake its old colonial master in the decades ahead and London wants to share in that economic success.

(Editing by Matthias Williams and Sanjeev Miglani)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More

Insight: Rome will burn, regardless of Italian election result

ROME (Reuters) - Regardless of who wins next weekend's parliamentary election, Italy's long economic decline is likely to continue because the next government won't be strong enough to pursue the tough reforms needed to make its economy competitive again.

Bankers, diplomats and industrialists in Rome and Milan despair at how Italians are shifting allegiances ahead of the February 24-25 vote to favor anti-establishment upstarts and show disgust with the established parties.

That makes it more likely that no bloc will have the political strength to tackle Italy's deep-rooted economic crisis, which has made it Europe's most sluggish large economy for the past two decades.

Final opinion polls predict that the vote will deliver a working majority in both houses for a centre-left coalition governing in alliance with technocrat former prime minister Mario Monti. Political risk consultancy Eurasia assigns this scenario a 50-60 percent probability.

But Italy's election for both chambers of parliament has the potential to tip the euro zone back into instability if the outcome does not produce that result.

The colorful cast of candidates includes disgraced media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, one of the world's richest men, the bespectacled academic Monti, anti-establishment comedian Beppe Grillo who campaigns from a camper van, and Nichi Vendola, a former communist poet who is the governor of Puglia.

Investors have so far taken a relaxed view, relying on polls produced until the legal deadline for surveys of Feb 10.

One of the best indicators that they are not worried: Italian benchmark 10-year bond yields, which topped six percent during the country's worst political moments in 2011, are now trading around 4.4 percent, almost a full percentage point lower than those of Spain.

Italian stocks have performed broadly in line with the wider European market since January, despite the election and a wave of scandals which has engulfed several leading Italian groups.

But observers in Italy are increasingly nervous that the rosy election scenario favored by investors may not work out.

A jaded electorate, angry about political corruption, economic mismanagement and a national crisis that has impoverished a once-wealthy member of the G7 club of rich nations, could produce a surprise.

Pier Luigi Bersani, the standard-bearer for the centre-left, is a worthy but lackluster former minister whose party has been linked to a banking scandal in the mediaeval Tuscan town of Siena. Support for his party now seems to be fading.

Opponents have latched on to the fact that the ailing bank, Monte dei Paschi, was run by a foundation dominated by political appointees from the centre-left and accused Bersani's party of presiding over a debacle that will cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of euros.

CAMPER VAN POLITICS

Monti, dubbed "Rigor Montis" by one opponent for his austerity policies which critics say hurt growth, is stuck in fourth place and slipping. Detractors say he comes across poorly on the hustings and has been hurt because he formed an election alliance with two discredited centrist politicians who are emblematic of the traditional politics which Monti disavows.

The big gainer in the final days before the election, according to private surveys quoted by experts, is stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo and his anti-establishment 5-Star Movement. Grillo has been on a "tsunami tour" of Italy in a camper van, filling piazzas with his ringing denunciations of the country's political class. He campaigns mainly on the Internet, where his widely read blog features a list of Italy's parliamentarians convicted of a crime (it features 24 names).

"The big question is: what happens to Grillo?" said one senior banker in Milan, speaking on condition of anonymity. "He won't win but he could stop Bersani and Monti from getting enough seats to form an effective government."

Under the electoral law in force for this poll, which almost all Italians agree is in need of reform, voters cast ballots for a party list. The coalition with the most votes is awarded top-up seats in the lower house to give it a 55 percent majority. But in the Senate, the top-up premium applies by region.

Pollsters say the race is too close to call in a few battleground regions but there is a good chance the centre-left will fall short of a majority in the Senate, which has equal law-making powers to the lower house.

A substantial vote for Grillo's movement - and some experts suggest he could top 20 percent - could mean the new parliament is filled with new, inexperienced, anti-establishment deputies who may refuse to do deals with other politicians and block legislation. Bersani and Monti could find themselves without a workable majority in the Senate even in alliance - a scenario which Eurasia believe has a 20-30 percent probability.

"It's hard to see Grillo's movement as a source of stability," said one diplomat, speaking off the record. "There is no chance they would be part of a coalition."

CONVICTION POLITICIAN

Ironically Grillo himself will not be entering parliament regardless of how well his movement does. The shaggy-haired 63-year-old was convicted of manslaughter after three passengers died when a jeep he was driving crashed in 1981, making him ineligible for election under his own party's rules barring convicted criminals from parliament.

"Grillo's agenda is just silly," said one leading Italian columnist, speaking anonymously because his publication did not allow him to be quoted in other media before the vote.

"It's a fuck off policy. He wants to leave Europe, set up people's tribunals, halve public employees. It's the most visible symptom of Italy's political crisis."

The 5-Star Movement is not the only anti-establishment force threatening to make Italy ungovernable. The federalist Northern League, which favors greater autonomy for northern Italy, is polling around five percent nationally. Its leader Roberto Maroni told Reuters last week he would use his seats in parliament in alliance with the centre-right to block a centre-left coalition and prevent it from governing.

The League is particularly important in the Senate as its home region of Lombardy, where the party polls about 15 percent, returns by far the most senators - 49 out of a chamber of 319.

Should Grillo's movement and the Northern League win enough seats to deprive a centre-left coalition with Monti of an overall majority, the most likely outcome is a "grand coalition" of left and right, experts say.

Such a result would unsettle investors because it would be likely to bring centre-right leader former premier Berlusconi, 76, back into government in a key role and Monti would be unlikely to join it.

Berlusconi's own party has boosted its standing in polls over the past month, helped by the former premier's veteran campaigning skill and his dominance of the country's private TV channels. But nobody apart from his own supporters believes he is likely to win this time.

POPE FACTOR

Pope Benedict's unexpected resignation this month has pushed the parliamentary election off the front pages in Italy, giving Berlusconi less print space and TV air time to press his populist message. The main beneficiary appears to be Grillo, whose strategy of ignoring mainstream media and campaigning on the Internet has been unaffected by the news from the Vatican.

Investors above all want a government which will tackle the reasons for Italy's lackluster performance. Italy has hardly grown since the birth of the euro in 1999 and its economy has slumped faster since the 2007 financial crisis than any other in Europe except Greece. Last year, Italy contracted by 2.2 percent, according to official statistics.

Businessmen complain of three main obstacles: stifling bureaucracy, labor laws which offer workers so much protection that they encourage slack performance, and a dysfunctional court system which makes it hard to enforce contracts and collect debts. All are deep-rooted problems and none is likely to be tackled effectively by a weak and divided government.

"Nobody in Italy is ready to make the reforms our country needs right now," said the chief executive of a major Italian company, speaking off the record.

"I am deeply convinced that without a major change in labor flexibility, we will not be able to increase productivity. My personal experience is that Italian labor is fantastic. But if you take a very good worker and tell him his job is completely safe, you will turn him into a slacker."

Italy's byzantine court system - where cases can languish for years - and its legendary bureaucracy are major obstacles to foreign investment and competitiveness, business people and diplomats say. "Foreign companies are surprised by how hard it is to get things done here which we all thought had been agreed in Brussels 20 years ago," said one senior European diplomat.

Monti's technocratic government won plaudits from business for reforming Italy's pension system but its efforts to reform labor laws did not enjoy similar success. Monti's government lasted 13 months until Berlusconi's bloc triggered its collapse by withdrawing support. Some observers in Italy don't believe that the next parliament's make-up will be nearly as conducive to reform as the outgoing one.

MUDDLE-THROUGH OUTCOME

"I want to be optimistic but my best guess is that they will keep to this muddle-through scenario in the next parliament with lackluster results for the economy," said a second senior diplomat. "This country needs a new generation of political leaders."

Key among the concerns of diplomats and business people is the disparate nature of the centre-left coalition leading in polls.

Bersani's election alliance is made up of four main parties, stretching from the former communist Vendola through the Christian left to socialists and centrists. If it is unable to govern alone, as most polls predict, it will need the support of Monti's bloc - itself made up of three parties.

Bankers fear that a government made up of seven different groups of widely varying political hues is highly unlikely to agree on the tough, radical reform measures the country needs.

"If we have a government made up of Bersani, Monti and Vendola, they will argue all the time," said the chief executive. "Bersani and Vendola's capacity for reform is almost zero." Comparing the present Italian centre-left candidate to the former German chancellor whose successful labor reforms belied his socialist roots, he added: "Bersani is no Schroeder".

Bersani's economic spokesman Stefano Fassina insists that the centre-left fully understands the urgency of Italy's economic plight and is committed to deliver on measures to stop the rot. But he puts the emphasis on making the public sector more efficient and persuading Berlin to tone down budget austerity at a European level rather than pursuing labor reform in Italy. Fassina insists that public commitments by Bersani and Vendola on an agreed program will minimize disagreements but he does admit to concern about how a centre-left administration could work with Grillo's unpredictable forces.

"It's impossible to have any discussions with Grillo as a party," he said. "We hope that in parliament some of his MPs will be pragmatic enough to agree on reasonable measures."

With so much uncertainty about the election and the chances fading of it returning a strong, stable reformist government, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Italy's slow, steady economic decline will continue regardless of the result.

"We've seen a steady economic decline in Italy over the past 20 years and it's very hard to see any outcome from this election which will reverse that. The reforms which would really get the country going again are out of reach," concluded the European diplomat.

(Editing by Peter Millership and Giles Elgood)

20.39 | 0 komentar | Read More